The Almanac
The Almanac runs thousands of simulated tournaments to project all 48 teams, updated as results come in.
View knockout projectionChances to reach the Round of 32
Each team's probability of advancing from its group, by the model.
Group A
- Mexico✓
- South Africa✓
- CzechiaOut
- South KoreaOut
Group B
- Switzerland✓
- Canada✓
- Bosnia-Herzegovina✓
- QatarOut
Group C
- Brazil✓
- Morocco✓
- HaitiOut
- ScotlandOut
Group D
- United States✓
- Paraguay✓
- Australia✓
- TurkeyOut
Group E
- Germany✓
- Ecuador✓
- Ivory Coast✓
- CuraçaoOut
Group F
- Netherlands✓
- Japan✓
- Sweden✓
- TunisiaOut
Group G
- Belgium✓
- Egypt✓
- IranOut
- New ZealandOut
Group H
- Spain✓
- Cape Verde✓
- Saudi ArabiaOut
- UruguayOut
Group I
- France✓
- Norway✓
- Senegal✓
- IraqOut
Group J
- Argentina✓
- Austria✓
- Algeria✓
- JordanOut
Group K
- Colombia✓
- Portugal✓
- DR Congo✓
- UzbekistanOut
Group L
- England✓
- Croatia✓
- Ghana✓
- PanamaOut
Export the team-by-team forecast
Team-by-team forecast
How far each team is projected to go, from the group stage through the final.
| Team | Group stage | Knockout | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Make R32 | 1st | 2nd | 3rd & in | 3rd & out | 4th | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win | |
| Group A | |||||||||||
| Mexico | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 65% | 27% | 13% | 4% | 1% |
| South Africa | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 33% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Czechia | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| South Korea | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group B | |||||||||||
| Switzerland | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 67% | 30% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Canada | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 67% | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 23% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Qatar | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group C | |||||||||||
| Brazil | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 63% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 3% |
| Morocco | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 48% | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% |
| Haiti | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Scotland | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group D | |||||||||||
| United States | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| Paraguay | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 40% | 12% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| Australia | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 55% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Turkey | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group E | |||||||||||
| Germany | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 60% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| Ecuador | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 35% | 11% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| Ivory Coast | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 30% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Curaçao | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group F | |||||||||||
| Netherlands | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 52% | 40% | 19% | 7% | 2% |
| Japan | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 37% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Sweden | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Tunisia | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group G | |||||||||||
| Belgium | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 66% | 46% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| Egypt | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 45% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Iran | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Zealand | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group H | |||||||||||
| Spain | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 89% | 71% | 60% | 46% | 29% |
| Cape Verde | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Saudi Arabia | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Uruguay | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group I | |||||||||||
| France | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 85% | 60% | 40% | 18% | 9% |
| Norway | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 70% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 2% |
| Senegal | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 34% | 18% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Iraq | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group J | |||||||||||
| Argentina | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 96% | 84% | 64% | 45% | 28% |
| Austria | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Algeria | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 33% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Jordan | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group K | |||||||||||
| Colombia | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 89% | 57% | 20% | 10% | 4% |
| Portugal | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 63% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 2% |
| DR Congo | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 12% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Uzbekistan | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Group L | |||||||||||
| England | 100% | 100% | - | - | - | - | 88% | 59% | 41% | 21% | 11% |
| Croatia | 100% | - | 100% | - | - | - | 37% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Ghana | 100% | - | - | 100% | - | - | 11% | 2% | <1% | <1% | - |
| Panama | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
Third-place race
Eight of the twelve third-place teams advance. Each bar is the chance a third from that group makes it, led by its likeliest qualifier.
Group BBosnia-Herzegovina100%
Group DParaguay100%
Group EEcuador100%
Group FSweden100%
Group ISenegal100%
Group JAlgeria100%
Group KDR Congo100%
Group LGhana100%
Group A-
Group C-
Group G-
Group H-
Groups are ordered by their chance of sending a third-place team through.
Elo ratings movement
How each team's Elo rating has shifted since the group stage locked on June 11.
Risers
- Australia+54
- United States+51
- Sweden+51
- Ghana+47
- Ivory Coast+46
Fallers
- Turkey-54
- Paraguay-51
- Tunisia-51
- Panama-47
- Ecuador-46
- #TeamEloChange
- 1Argentina▲12206+15
- 2Spain▼12189-28
- 3France–2144+21
- 4England–2118+30
- 5Colombia▲12080+17
- 6Brazil▼12065-7
- 7Portugal–2024-20
- 8Germany▲22015+13
- 9Netherlands–2007-2
- 10Morocco▲21991+7
- 11Norway▲41991+22
- 12Japan▼11987+2
- 13Mexico–1987+8
- 14Ecuador▼61980-46
- 15Uruguay▼11954-20
- 16Australia▲81951+54
- 17Belgium▲11943-12
- 18Croatia▼11937-30
- 19Switzerland–1930-24
- 20Austria▲51919+31
- 21Turkey▼51913-54
- 22South Korea▲51902+23
- 23Senegal▼21893-21
- 24Iran▼21885-13
- #TeamEloChange
- 25United States▲51877+51
- 26Canada▼31875-23
- 27Algeria▼11868-15
- 28Paraguay▼81865-51
- 29Scotland–1861+19
- 30Ivory Coast▲11861+46
- 31Egypt▲11825+12
- 32Sweden▲41819+51
- 33Panama▼51807-47
- 34Uzbekistan▼11796-17
- 35DR Congo▲21783+20
- 36Czechia▼21777-23
- 37New Zealand▲11749+13
- 38Jordan▼31743-31
- 39Iraq–1714-22
- 40Saudi Arabia▲21712+20
- 41Haiti–1689-19
- 42Tunisia▼21683-51
- 43Cape Verde▲11680+28
- 44Ghana▲21673+47
- 45Bosnia-Herzegovina–1672+23
- 46South Africa▼31656-8
- 47Curaçao–1604-13
- 48Qatar–1588+24
Elo is The Almanac's own rating, computed from a free public-domain results corpus (CC0). It is one input to the model, not a betting line.