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Spain forecast

Reach the final

46%

Win it all

29%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Spain reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Austria100% likelyWin vs them: 79%
  2. Round of 16Portugal63% likelyWin vs them: 69%
  3. QuarterfinalsBelgium46% likelyWin vs them: 77%
  4. SemifinalsFrance40% likelyWin vs them: 55%
  5. FinalArgentina45% likelyWin vs them: 48%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.