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Australia forecast

Reach the final

1%

Win it all

<1%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Australia reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Egypt100% likelyWin vs them: 64%
  2. Round of 16Argentina96% likelyWin vs them: 23%
  3. QuarterfinalsColombia57% likelyWin vs them: 35%
  4. SemifinalsEngland41% likelyWin vs them: 31%
  5. FinalSpain43% likelyWin vs them: 24%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.

Australia forecast | WC Predictor