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Brazil forecast

Reach the final

7%

Win it all

3%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Brazil reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Japan100% likelyWin vs them: 59%
  2. Round of 16Norway70% likelyWin vs them: 59%
  3. QuarterfinalsEngland59% likelyWin vs them: 44%
  4. SemifinalsArgentina64% likelyWin vs them: 34%
  5. FinalSpain45% likelyWin vs them: 36%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.