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Portugal forecast

Reach the final

6%

Win it all

2%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Portugal reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Croatia100% likelyWin vs them: 60%
  2. Round of 16Spain89% likelyWin vs them: 31%
  3. QuarterfinalsBelgium46% likelyWin vs them: 59%
  4. SemifinalsFrance39% likelyWin vs them: 36%
  5. FinalArgentina44% likelyWin vs them: 30%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.