England forecast

Most likely opponent each round

For each round England reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

1. Round of 32DR Congo100% likelyWin vs them: 84%
2. Round of 16Mexico65% likelyWin vs them: 65%
3. QuarterfinalsBrazil39% likelyWin vs them: 56%
4. SemifinalsArgentina64% likelyWin vs them: 40%
5. FinalSpain45% likelyWin vs them: 42%