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Switzerland forecast

Reach the final

3%

Win it all

1%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Switzerland reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Algeria100% likelyWin vs them: 57%
  2. Round of 16Colombia89% likelyWin vs them: 33%
  3. QuarterfinalsArgentina84% likelyWin vs them: 21%
  4. SemifinalsEngland42% likelyWin vs them: 29%
  5. FinalSpain46% likelyWin vs them: 22%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.

Switzerland forecast | WC Predictor