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Colombia forecast

Reach the final

10%

Win it all

4%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Colombia reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Ghana100% likelyWin vs them: 89%
  2. Round of 16Switzerland67% likelyWin vs them: 67%
  3. QuarterfinalsArgentina85% likelyWin vs them: 36%
  4. SemifinalsEngland41% likelyWin vs them: 46%
  5. FinalSpain46% likelyWin vs them: 37%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.