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Canada forecast

Reach the final

1%

Win it all

<1%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Canada reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32South Africa100% likelyWin vs them: 74%
  2. Round of 16Netherlands51% likelyWin vs them: 35%
  3. QuarterfinalsFrance60% likelyWin vs them: 21%
  4. SemifinalsSpain60% likelyWin vs them: 18%
  5. FinalArgentina49% likelyWin vs them: 16%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.