Skip to main content
Back to The Almanac

Senegal forecast

Reach the final

1%

Win it all

<1%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Senegal reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Belgium100% likelyWin vs them: 44%
  2. Round of 16United States77% likelyWin vs them: 52%
  3. QuarterfinalsSpain71% likelyWin vs them: 19%
  4. SemifinalsFrance41% likelyWin vs them: 23%
  5. FinalArgentina46% likelyWin vs them: 18%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.