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South Africa forecast

Reach the final

<1%

Win it all

<1%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round South Africa reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Canada100% likelyWin vs them: 26%
  2. Round of 16Netherlands52% likelyWin vs them: 15%
  3. QuarterfinalsFrance59% likelyWin vs them: 7%
  4. SemifinalsSpain64% likelyWin vs them: 5%
  5. FinalArgentina42% likelyWin vs them: 5%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.