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Argentina forecast

Reach the final

45%

Win it all

28%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Argentina reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Cape Verde100% likelyWin vs them: 94%
  2. Round of 16Australia55% likelyWin vs them: 77%
  3. QuarterfinalsColombia57% likelyWin vs them: 64%
  4. SemifinalsEngland41% likelyWin vs them: 60%
  5. FinalSpain46% likelyWin vs them: 52%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.