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Ghana forecast

Reach the final

<1%

Win it all

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Most likely opponent each round

For each round Ghana reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Colombia100% likelyWin vs them: 11%
  2. Round of 16Switzerland67% likelyWin vs them: 22%
  3. QuarterfinalsArgentina85% likelyWin vs them: 5%
  4. SemifinalsEngland38% likelyWin vs them: 9%
  5. FinalSpain42% likelyWin vs them: 6%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.

Ghana forecast | WC Predictor