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Japan forecast

Reach the final

2%

Win it all

1%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round Japan reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Brazil100% likelyWin vs them: 41%
  2. Round of 16Norway70% likelyWin vs them: 50%
  3. QuarterfinalsEngland59% likelyWin vs them: 35%
  4. SemifinalsArgentina64% likelyWin vs them: 26%
  5. FinalSpain44% likelyWin vs them: 28%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.