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United States forecast

Reach the final

2%

Win it all

<1%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round United States reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Bosnia-Herzegovina100% likelyWin vs them: 73%
  2. Round of 16Belgium66% likelyWin vs them: 42%
  3. QuarterfinalsSpain71% likelyWin vs them: 18%
  4. SemifinalsFrance40% likelyWin vs them: 22%
  5. FinalArgentina45% likelyWin vs them: 16%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.

United States forecast | WC Predictor