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France forecast

Reach the final

18%

Win it all

9%

Most likely opponent each round

For each round France reaches, the single likeliest opponent and the model's chance of beating them in that one match. This is a readable path, not a most probable bracket: the per-match chances are not multiplied into the headline above.

  1. Round of 32Sweden100% likelyWin vs them: 83%
  2. Round of 16Germany60% likelyWin vs them: 65%
  3. QuarterfinalsNetherlands40% likelyWin vs them: 66%
  4. SemifinalsSpain60% likelyWin vs them: 45%
  5. FinalArgentina45% likelyWin vs them: 43%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds.