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The Almanac bracket

Top marginal favorites for each knockout spot, by match and side of the fixed 2026 bracket.

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Share a team's path to the final

Most likely team in each spot

Each spot shows a marginal position probability. This is not one coherent simulated bracket.

Champion

ESP

Spain

29%

Round of 32

M74

Round of 32

Details

Mon, Jun 29, Boston

1E

  • GER100%

3rd A/B/C/D/F

  • PAR100%

M77

Round of 32

Details

Tue, Jun 30, New York/New Jersey

1I

  • FRA100%

3rd C/D/F/G/H

  • SWE100%

M73

Round of 32

Details

Sun, Jun 28, Los Angeles

2A

  • RSA100%

2B

  • CAN100%

M75

Round of 32

Details

Tue, Jun 30, Monterrey

1F

  • NED100%

2C

  • MAR100%

M83

Round of 32

Details

Thu, Jul 2, Toronto

2K

  • POR100%

2L

  • CRO100%

M84

Round of 32

Details

Thu, Jul 2, Los Angeles

1H

  • ESP100%

2J

  • AUT100%

M81

Round of 32

Details

Thu, Jul 2, San Francisco Bay Area

1D

  • USA100%

3rd B/E/F/I/J

  • BIH100%

M82

Round of 32

Details

Wed, Jul 1, Seattle

1G

  • BEL100%

3rd A/E/H/I/J

  • SEN100%

M76

Round of 32

Details

Mon, Jun 29, Houston

1C

  • BRA100%

2F

  • JPN100%

M78

Round of 32

Details

Tue, Jun 30, Dallas

2E

  • CIV100%

2I

  • NOR100%

M79

Round of 32

Details

Wed, Jul 1, Mexico City

1A

  • MEX100%

3rd C/E/F/H/I

  • ECU100%

M80

Round of 32

Details

Wed, Jul 1, Atlanta

1L

  • ENG100%

3rd E/H/I/J/K

  • COD100%

M86

Round of 32

Details

Fri, Jul 3, Miami

1J

  • ARG100%

2H

  • CPV100%

M88

Round of 32

Details

Fri, Jul 3, Dallas

2D

  • AUS100%

2G

  • EGY100%

M85

Round of 32

Details

Fri, Jul 3, Vancouver

1B

  • SUI100%

3rd E/F/G/I/J

  • ALG100%

M87

Round of 32

Details

Sat, Jul 4, Kansas City

1K

  • COL100%

3rd D/E/I/J/L

  • GHA100%

Round of 16

M89

Round of 16

Details

Sat, Jul 4, Philadelphia

W74

  • GER60%
  • PAR40%

W77

  • FRA85%
  • SWE15%

M90

Round of 16

Details

Sat, Jul 4, Houston

W73

  • CAN67%
  • RSA33%

W75

  • NED52%
  • MAR48%

M93

Round of 16

Details

Mon, Jul 6, Dallas

W83

  • POR63%
  • CRO37%

W84

  • ESP89%
  • AUT11%

M94

Round of 16

Details

Tue, Jul 7, Seattle

W81

  • USA77%
  • BIH23%

W82

  • BEL66%
  • SEN34%

M91

Round of 16

Details

Sun, Jul 5, New York/New Jersey

W76

  • BRA63%
  • JPN37%

W78

  • NOR70%
  • CIV30%

M92

Round of 16

Details

Mon, Jul 6, Mexico City

W79

  • MEX65%
  • ECU35%

W80

  • ENG88%
  • COD12%

M95

Round of 16

Details

Tue, Jul 7, Atlanta

W86

  • ARG96%
  • CPV4%

W88

  • AUS55%
  • EGY45%

M96

Round of 16

Details

Tue, Jul 7, Vancouver

W85

  • SUI67%
  • ALG33%

W87

  • COL89%
  • GHA11%

Quarterfinals

M97

Quarterfinals

Details

Thu, Jul 9, Boston

W89

  • FRA60%
  • GER23%
  • PAR12%
  • Others5%

W90

  • NED40%
  • MAR36%
  • CAN19%
  • Others5%

M98

Quarterfinals

Details

Fri, Jul 10, Los Angeles

W93

  • ESP71%
  • POR18%
  • CRO7%
  • Others4%

W94

  • BEL46%
  • USA32%
  • SEN18%
  • Others4%

M99

Quarterfinals

Details

Sat, Jul 11, Miami

W91

  • BRA39%
  • NOR34%
  • JPN19%
  • Others9%

W92

  • ENG59%
  • MEX27%
  • ECU11%
  • Others3%

M100

Quarterfinals

Details

Sun, Jul 12, Kansas City

W95

  • ARG84%
  • AUS9%
  • EGY6%
  • Others1%

W96

  • COL57%
  • SUI30%
  • ALG10%
  • Others2%

Semifinals

M101

Semifinals

Details

Tue, Jul 14, Dallas

W97

  • FRA40%
  • NED19%
  • MAR17%
  • Others24%

W98

  • ESP60%
  • BEL14%
  • POR11%
  • Others15%

M102

Semifinals

Details

Wed, Jul 15, Atlanta

W99

  • ENG41%
  • BRA18%
  • NOR13%
  • Others27%

W100

  • ARG64%
  • COL20%
  • SUI8%
  • Others7%

Final

M104

Final

Details

Sun, Jul 19, New York/New Jersey

W101

  • ESP46%
  • FRA18%
  • NED7%
  • Others29%

W102

  • ARG45%
  • ENG21%
  • COL10%
  • Others24%

Projections from simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results.

Powered by GAFFER (Goal-Adjusted Forecasting From Elo Ratings).

Model projection, not betting odds., updated Sun, Jul 19