Round of 32 Simulator

Change any group result and watch the projected Round of 32 reshape in real time.

Play out any what-if here. Nothing you change counts toward your real picks.

View your brackets

Group stage

Group APWDLGFGAGDPts

1MEX330060+69

2RSA311123-14

3KOR310223-13

4CZE301226-41

MEX2-0RSAFT

KOR2-1CZEFT

CZE1-1RSAFT

MEX1-0KORFT

CZE0-3MEXFT

RSA1-0KORFT

Group BPWDLGFGAGDPts

1SUI321073+47

2CAN311183+54

3BIH311156-14

4QAT3012210-81

CAN1-1BIHFT

QAT1-1SUIFT

SUI4-1BIHFT

CAN6-0QATFT

SUI2-1CANFT

BIH3-1QATFT

Group CPWDLGFGAGDPts

1BRA321071+67

2MAR321063+37

3SCO310214-33

4HAI300328-60

HAI0-1SCOFT

BRA1-1MARFT

BRA3-0HAIFT

SCO0-1MARFT

SCO0-3BRAFT

MAR4-2HAIFT

Group DPWDLGFGAGDPts

1USA320184+46

2AUS31112204

3PAR311124-24

4TUR310235-23

USA4-1PARFT

AUS2-0TURFT

TUR0-1PARFT

USA2-0AUSFT

TUR3-2USAFT

PAR0-0AUSFT

Group EPWDLGFGAGDPts

1GER3201104+66

2CIV320142+26

3ECU31112204

4CUW301219-81

CIV1-0ECUFT

GER7-1CUWFT

GER2-1CIVFT

ECU0-0CUWFT

CUW0-2CIVFT

ECU2-1GERFT

Group FPWDLGFGAGDPts

1NED3210104+67

2JPN312073+45

3SWE31117704

4TUN3003212-100

NED2-2JPNFT

SWE5-1TUNFT

NED5-1SWEFT

TUN0-4JPNFT

JPN1-1SWEFT

TUN1-3NEDFT

Group GPWDLGFGAGDPts

1BEL312062+45

2EGY312053+25

3IRN30303303

4NZL3012410-61

IRN2-2NZLFT

BEL1-1EGYFT

BEL0-0IRNFT

NZL1-3EGYFT

EGY1-1IRNFT

NZL1-5BELFT

Group HPWDLGFGAGDPts

1ESP321050+57

2CPV30302203

3URU302134-12

4KSA302115-42

KSA1-1URUFT

ESP0-0CPVFT

URU2-2CPVFT

ESP4-0KSAFT

CPV0-0KSAFT

URU0-1ESPFT

Group IPWDLGFGAGDPts

1FRA3300102+89

2NOR320187+16

3SEN310286+23

4IRQ3003112-110

FRA3-1SENFT

IRQ1-4NORFT

NOR3-2SENFT

FRA3-0IRQFT

NOR1-4FRAFT

SEN5-0IRQFT

Group JPWDLGFGAGDPts

1ARG330081+79

2AUT31116604

3ALG311157-24

4JOR300338-50

ARG3-0ALGFT

AUT3-1JORFT

ARG2-0AUTFT

JOR1-2ALGFT

ALG3-3AUTFT

JOR1-3ARGFT

Group KPWDLGFGAGDPts

1COL321041+37

2POR312061+55

3COD311143+14

4UZB3003211-90

POR1-1CODFT

UZB1-3COLFT

POR5-0UZBFT

COL1-0CODFT

COL0-0PORFT

COD3-1UZBFT

Group LPWDLGFGAGDPts

1ENG321062+47

2CRO32015506

3GHA31112204

4PAN300304-40

GHA1-0PANFT

ENG4-2CROFT

ENG0-0GHAFT

PAN0-1CROFT

PAN0-2ENGFT

CRO2-1GHAFT

The Almanac

WinFinal

1
Spain
29%46%
2
Argentina
28%45%
3
England
11%21%
4
France
9%18%
5
Colombia
4%10%
6
Brazil
3%7%
7
Netherlands
2%7%
8
Belgium
2%6%
9
Portugal
2%6%
10
Morocco
2%6%
11
Norway
2%4%
12
Mexico
1%4%

Full forecast

Model projection, not betting odds. · updated Sun, Jul 19

Odds from 50,000 simulated tournaments using my own Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles scoreline model, conditioned on the completed results. The model reads the Elo gap, so its edge is the full scoreline distribution, not the win or draw call.

Best 3rd-place teams

#GrpPWDLGFGAGDPts

1KCOD311143+14

2FSWE31117704

3LGHA31112204

4EECU31112204

5BBIH311156-14

6JALG311157-24

7DPAR311124-24

8ISEN310286+23

9GIRN30303303

10AKOR310223-13

11CSCO310214-33

12HURU302134-12

Advances (1-8)

Projected Round of 32

M74

GER

PAR

M77

FRA

SWE

M73

RSA

CAN

M75

NED

MAR

M83

POR

CRO

M84

ESP

AUT

M81

USA

BIH

M82

BEL

SEN

M76

BRA

JPN

M78

CIV

NOR

M79

MEX

ECU

M80

ENG

COD

M86

ARG

CPV

M88

AUS

EGY

M85

SUI

ALG

M87

COL

GHA

Projected bracket

Tap a team to advance it through the bracket, or use Simulate.

R32R16QFSFFinalSFQFR16R32

Champion

TBD

Round of 32

Round of 16

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

Final

Semifinals

Quarterfinals

Round of 16

Round of 32

TBD

Champion

TBD

How the Round of 32 is built

The top two from each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams. FIFA's fixed allocation then assigns each advancing third to a specific group winner's Round of 32 match.

Ties are broken by goal difference, then goals for, then FIFA ranking (not the official head-to-head tiebreaker), so exact-tie scenarios are approximate.